In anticipation of Theresa May's upcoming speech in Florence,
Talleyrand would recall another speech there about Europe that became rather famous -- by Roy Jenkins, nearly forty years
'I believe that a new, more compelling
and rewarding but still arduous approach is necessary.
We must also change the metaphor. Let us think of a long-jumper. He starts with a rapid succession of steps, lengthens
his stride, increases his momentum, and then makes his leap'
Bonne chance, Madame May.
North Korea's regime now claims to have tested a hydrogen
weapon. It has recently tested more missiles than it has in a long time. Yet, the consensus among the world's experts is still,
after some two decades, that the North Koreans are extortionists who can be alternately browbeaten or bought off, and
the status quo ante will resume.
knows very little about these odd people. But he has asked a number of times -- eg here and here -- for evidence of the inner thoughts of the North Koreans. What if they are not extortionists but have some other aim besides
'regime survival'? Or, what if their definition of extortion is not the same as others'?
Governments that do not wish to fear the worst from North Korea need to determine
a collective aim and then determine what each is prepared to do to achieve it. Even then, it may too late to impose a unified
front against this menace of a regime, and succeed. But if there is to be any aim achieved that is not exclusively North Korea's,
then certainly it will follow from a policy that is not based upon wishful thinking or upon any other speculation over what
Kim Jong Un wants and will do, but upon what his adversaries want and need in this region.
The foregoing is not rocket science [sic]. It is, going by recent comments
of senior American, Chinese, Japanese, Russian, and South Korean officials, not unfamilar. The question now is not whether
or not it is being acted upon. One way or another, there will probably not be an undramatic denouement to this crisis. The
question is whether its nature, scale, and scope will be decided by North Korea or by its adversaries -- in unison, or not.